I just committed possibly the worst mistake one could make in a single table SNG (or for that matter any) tournament.

Four players left, top three pay, we’re in the bubble. Blinds are 150/300, I’m in the SB with around 2.5K in chips, the BB to my left has only 450 in chips and will be forced all in by the SB if he doesn’t win this hand.

A player to my left, who has around 3K in chips makes it 1500 to go, I look down at:

:Tc::Ts:

A nice hand four handed. I think about the read I have on this player, he’s been aggressive the whole tournament and has 4X raised with pretty much any high cards. What I do not think about (until a millisecond too late) is that I do not have to play this hand, if I fold it I’m almost guaranteed to get in the money. So guess what? Before I can even think I re-raise (which puts me all-in), the short stack folds and my opponent turns over:

:Kh::Kd:

I don’t improve, head out in fourth and Mr 150 chips gets knocked out by the small blind the next hand in third place and takes home twice his buy-in.

Moral of the story is think about the war, not the battle. Modify tactics based on the strategy and all that. I KNOW THIS! The real question is:

How could I be so stupid?

NOTE: This is not a rhetorical question, I need to know! Surely someone out there knows?

In poker a “semi-bluff” is where you bet at a pot when you don’t have the best hand but have a hand that has a good chance of improving to the best hand before the end of the game.

Playing limit hold’em sitting in the SB am dealt:

:9c::6c:

Four players call the BB and I limp, the BB checks and we see a flop:

:Tc::Js::Qc:

Giving me an open ended straight draw (the better card being an 8 here as a king would give anyone with an ace a higher straight) and a flush draw. I have to bet on this flop for two reasons:

1. For value, my hand has a high chance of improving to likely the best hand before the river.
2. To narrow the field a little, I’d like to see hands like a pair of jacks or tens fold here as well as anyone holding an ace.

So I bet, three players call and the button raises.

This raise intrigues me, I wasn’t expecting it and now I have to re-evaluate my hand. What could he have? AK is possible, but unlikely this player is aggressive preflop and would have raised. QJ is a definite contender as is QT or JT. It’s also possible that he’s on the same draw as me, problem is if this is the case he may have king of clubs and another club and might have me dominated.

With all these variables I decide I cannot call this bet and if I want to keep playing this hand I must raise to try and get a feeling of where I’m really at, so I raise.

Only one of the original stragglers calls and the button re-raises to cap the betting. There is no doubt in my mind that I am now behind in this hand, my only hope is that the button is on a straight draw without any clubs as if he has any made hand he is calling to the river. My other worry is the third player in the pot who is just smooth calling, he’s new at the table and I have no read on him. It’s possible that he could be trying something tricky with a flopped straight but it’s more likely he’s on a weak draw or has a pair of queens, I’m not too worried about him at this point.

So I call, the straggler calls and three of us see the turn:

It’s unlikely that this card improves anybodies hand and I decide it’s a good card for me to push a little harder on. The players left in this hand probably don’t put me on a draw, I played aggressively on the flop and they must think I have a made hand, possibly the straight. If I bet here I can see just how much they like their hands and possibly get a clue as to what they are holding. There’s also a small chance they might fold. So I bet and to my surprise both players just call.

Both of these players just gave away two important details about their hands:

1. Their hands are weak or they are drawing
2. They think my hand is beating them at this stage

So armed with this information we see the river:

You might be surprised but this is actually a great card for me, it completes no draws (OK, before NickG busts me for not thinking about every possibility technically it could give someone a full house but after the play on the turn I’d bet my right nut that no one had a set ;)).

So my choices are either check and lose this hand or bet and hope that these players were drawing and will fold.

I bet, they fold and give me a pot worth 13 big bets.

Now, this post wasn’t meant as a bragging post about how I played. Far from it, in fact at the time I put that bet in on the river I expected to be handing this pot over to one of the other players.

When my opponents folded on the river I decided this hand needed to be analysed to determine why I won and what better place to analyse it than out here in public?

The key to winning this hand was representing a big hand on the flop when I was semi-bluffing, had I simply called the button’s raise on the flop I’m sure I would have lost this hand. I would have shown weakness and given away the fact that I was drawing (just as my opponents did by calling on the turn). The lesson to be learnt here is to always play your strong draws in limit poker aggressively and always ask yourself why your opponents make the moves that they do. You’ll need to treat each situation differently (what if I had been raised on the turn, what if the turn was an ace?) and only rarely will you get a chance to take control of a hand like this from early position, but when you do decide to play that semi-bluff don’t play weakly. Raise or fold, that’s they key!

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Interesting read:

Zee Justin - “I Screwed Up”

In my opinion he deserves everything that he gets and it is questionable whether he deserves to return to poker at all. Ever. Taking sport as an example, in some competitions cheating is punishable by a life ban.

Unfortunately this isn’t possible in poker, but if it was he and any other confirmed cheaters, would (in my humble opinion) deserve it.

In middle position I’m dealt:

:8c::8s:

A player in early position bets, three players including myself call and we see a flop:

:Tc::Kd::8h:

The original bettor bets, I decide to just call putting him on AK and one of the other two players also calls. The turn comes:

Giving me a full house, the early position player bets, I raise and we’re heads up. He re-raises and I cap to see the river:

And we cap the betting again, I get ready to scoop in a huge pot until he turns over:

:Kc::Ks:

For quads! QUADS!

Even though I was behind the whole way and even though pocket 10’s also would have beaten me I don’t think I’d play this hand any differently given my time again, at least not at the limits I’m playing at (this was at .25/.50). Hey, at least on those rare times that I’ll lose I have an interesting story for the blog!